jForex Currency Results

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Trading on the simulator, we added 60 Pips as the Euro recovered from a tumble in morning trading. EUR/USD falls to as low as 1.2691 so far, inch above mentioned target of 100% projection of 1.4578 to 1.3443 from 1.3817 at 1.2682. Intraday bias remains on the downside and decisive break of 1.2682 will pave the way to retest key support zone of 1.2329/2456. On the upside, above 1.2857 minor resistance will indicate that a temporary low is formed and bring recovery. But upside should be limited by 1.3114 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.

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Euro remains under much pressure after ECB left rates unchanged at 1.00% as widely expected. No special announcement is made today and Trichet said that Governing Council didn’t discuss today whether it should purchase government bonds as the euro region’s fiscal crisis spreads. Nevertheless, Euro continues to feel the weight of debt crisis.

EUR/USD reached 1.3265/70 resistance on hopes for a larger bailout but prices slumped after the lack of confirmation. We fell back to 1.3175 and were rebounding from those levels when news of the Spanish downgrade sent EUR/USD to fresh lows for the trend at 1.3114. We recovered during the afternoon after the FOMC maintained the status quo, with EUR/USD approaching the 1.3210 level from which it plunged after the downgrade du jour. 1.3260/70 is important resistance for EUR/USD in the near-term as stops from short-term specs are now clustered above that level.

Dollar fell back in trading overnight despite concerns expressed over recent funding of Greek banking. We traded positive last night picking up a few Pips at the 1.36 level on two shorts.

Trading at all in this market is hazardous due to narrow ranges and lower volume. Indicators would call for a long this morning…watch carefully and keep your stops close.

You found a great entry point and made the commitment to get into the trade. Price moved up (or down) as you expected and then…boom, you are caught by your protective stop and taken out of the trade. Worse yet, price action comes right back in and moves in the direction you were expecting…you are back on the sidelines.

You may have been too conservative with where you set your stop or you may have entered the trade too early. Look for a swing low such as the one shown here at 8am in which the pros return price action to the level of the previous low at 1130am and then slightly below. If you entered this trade at the first swing low point you could have been the victim of the ’stop police.’ However, if you entered at the second point after the long green candle…you would be in the trade for a 40 Pip profit.

The Euro extended recovery gains to a 1.3560 high unable to sustain above 1.3550 on Thursday.
Trading will be rather erratic for the rest of the week as trading volumes should be lower on the holiday week.
Traders will now turn their focus to the U.S. non-farm employment report Friday expected to show the first monthly job gain since February 2008. Following Wednesday’s ADP report, that showed the private sector shed 23K jobs, some economists have lowered their NFP consensus to around +180K from +190K. As most market participants will be out on observance of “Good Friday”, trading will rather erratic and volatile.
At these current levels, bias is neutral in the Euro as the recovery rally from 1.3268 could extend a bit further before the overall bearish trend continues. The case for not sustaining above 1.3550 points to an extended downward move, but some have doubts in the near term due to the Holiday week (low volumes/high volatility). On the upside, the pair did retest the 1.3609 level and may even rise to 1.3701 before heading lower.

Over night in the EUR/USD has ranged from the open at 1.3506 down to 1.3478 where we have set an entry for a trade in this last day of the holiday week. With a stop 25 Pips below, we are looking for a move back up above 1.3500 and a 100 Pip profit objective.

Overnight trading on the EUR/USD pair moved from 1.3383 up above 1.3467 before rolling over.

The euro rose slightly against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, ahead of U.S. and EU unemployment reports and the Easter weekend. EUR/USD hit 1.3424 during early European trade, gaining 0.08%. The pair was likely to find resistance at 1.3818, the high of March 17, and support at 1.3267, last Thursday’s low and a 10-month low.

The Dollar reversed earlier weakness to close higher after U.S. consumer confidence data came out better than expected. The friendly report served as further evidence that the U.S. economy may be recovering faster than the Euro Zone. This means the Fed is likely to begin raising interest rates before the European Central Bank.

Upside momentum slowed considerably overnight which helped weaken the Euro on the New York session opening. The buzz over the European Union/International Monetary Fund Greece bailout plan seemed to be fading also. As expected, the EUR USD broke back into a minor 50% retracement level at 1.3402. This price held, but the short-covering rally following the test of this level was weak.

Traders also reacted to a shift in the interest rate spread between U.S. Treasury and German financial instruments. 10-Year Note yields rose above the German Bund making an investment in U.S. Treasuries a more attractive investment. This also helped to pressure the EUR USD throughout day session.

Finally, the Dollar rose against the Euro as Greece’s seven-year notes fell in the initial day of trading. News that the auction of Greek 12-year bonds attracted less than half the debt offered also contributed to the weakness in the EUR USD.

An agreement by euro-zone leaders on a joint contingency plan with the International Monetary Fund to provide aid to Greece received a lukewarm reaction in financial markets, with the euro rebounding from 10-month lows and Greek government bond modestly outperforming their counterparts. The EUR/USD is up 60 Pips overnight on the news.

The agreement may offer only limited relief to euro bulls, said strategists at UniCredit Bank in Milan, since aid will only be available as a last resort. The euro regained its footing after Trichet backed off his earlier criticism of the IMF role, but the single currency needs to make a move above chart resistance at $1.3440 or risk falling back toward $1.3250, they said.

Our early morning trade on our live account is good for a few Pips as the Euro continues it upmove toward 1.3400. Caution: early trading can cost a lot in entry costs as you get hit for a premium to trade at this time while volume is low and trading is thin. Watch your position and if you are wrong, you are gone. It is also hard to set a tight protective stop because they will come and get you at nearly any level. Safe trading!

The euro extended its sharp decline against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday after a downgrade of Portugal’s debt, and in the wake of mixed U.S. and euro economic data.

During U.S. trading, EUR/USD slumped to 1.3303, the pair’s lowest rate since May 7 last year.

EUR/USD was likely to find support at 1.2884, the low of April 22, 2009, and resistance at 1.4026, the high of Feb. 3.